Swaggy's Top Stonks

Welcome newcomers to Swaggy's Top Stonks, and thank you for subscribing.

Starting tomorrow, you’ll get more of what you love and less of what you hate.

What this means for you:

  • It’ll be called Stocks and Income because that’s what we’re all about.

  • Stocks and Income will be daily. You can opt out of that if it’s too much.

  • More info and more analysis. Whatever market daily you read now, this will be better.

Enjoy!

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TL;DR

  • The early 2024 stock market saw a downturn, ending the late 2023 rally. Major U.S. indexes, including the NASDAQ, S&P 500, and Dow, experienced their first weekly declines since October.

  • The US job market showed resilience, adding 216,000 jobs in the last month, surpassing expectations. The unemployment rate remained at 3.7%, maintaining a steady labor market.

  • The 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield rose above 4.00%, influenced by positive economic data and speculation about the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies.

  • Earnings expectations for S&P 500 companies have been reduced by analysts, indicating a cautious outlook for the upcoming earnings season.

  • The S&P 500's dividend payouts hit a record $588 billion in 2023, showcasing strong corporate profitability.

  • January's stock market performance is often seen as an indicator of the year's trend, with historical data showing a strong correlation.

  • Wage growth is expected to moderate in 2024, which could balance inflationary pressures and support consumer spending, crucial for economic stability.

🕶️ Market Vibes

🎰 Market Forecasts and Futures

Forecasts come from Kalshi, our favorite prediction market. Get $25 with this link.

🧠 What do you think?

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Login or Subscribe to participate in polls.

🎤 What you said last time

Slightly more of you prioritized my marriage over your bathroom reading material, so cheers for that.

Nonetheless, we did come out with three special issues over the break:

Hope you enjoyed them.

📚 What I'm reading

I get a lot of mail asking where I find all this good stuff. Here are a few of my favorite newsletters, all of which are free to subscribe to:

Chartr

Visual insights into business, tech, entertainment and society. Takes 5 minutes to read.

Interviews, articles, memes & research reports from Twitter, Substack, YouTube & more. Get smarter about investing.

One of my go-to's for great stock ideas (including this week's picks).

🧠 Stock ideas

Here are my three favourites from this past week from Yellowbrick Road.

Analysis provided by public.com.

Remember to always DYOR.

Bull Case:

  • Exclusive Content: Huya leads in China's game livestreaming with 80 million monthly users due to exclusive esports content.

  • Cash Reserves: Huya reserves cash for shareholders via a $100 million share repurchase program.

  • Non-Esports Growth: Huya could diversify into non-esports content, unlocking additional revenue streams.

Bear Case:

  • Fierce Competition: Intense competition from Kuaishou and Bilibili limits Huya's expansion into leisure games and entertainment, challenging market share.

  • High Fixed Costs: Profitability is pressured by high content costs and revenue-sharing deals with streamers.

  • Regulatory and Tencent Risks: Regulatory scrutiny and Tencent buyout risks introduce uncertainty and volatility.

TETRA Technologies Inc. ($TTI)

Bull Case:

  • Undervaluation: Analysts suggest TTI is undervalued with a 51% upside potential, driven by a recent 30% stock drop due to project delays.

  • Dominant Market Share: TTI's market leadership in completion fluids and the Permian Basin positions it for growth.

  • Growth Initiatives and Diversification: TTI has promising growth initiatives like desalination tech, lithium reserves, and Zinc Bromide Battery Storage.

Bear Case:

  • Project Delays: TTI's recent stock drop due to project delays signals operational challenges.

  • Dependency on Oil and Gas: TTI's close ties to the oil and gas industry make it susceptible to industry fluctuations and regulatory change.

  • Execution Risk: Ambitious growth initiatives may face technical, operational, or market challenges, potentially hindering expected EBITDA.

CarMax ($KMX)

Bull Case:

  • Customer-Centric Model: CarMax's customer-focused approach provide a competitive edge in the used-vehicle retailing industry.

  • Overreaction to Amazon Partnership: Recent stock drops due to Hyundai's partnership with Amazon are seen as excessive, given CarMax's strong business model and unique selling process

  • Economic Moat: CarMax's narrow economic moat, market presence, and CarMax Auto Finance offer competitive advantages.

Bear Case:

  • Interest Rates: Economic challenges and rising interest rates could reduce consumer spending on vehicles.

  • Market Saturation: The competitive used vehicle retailing industry and online platforms may pressure CarMax's market share and margins.

  • Execution Risk: Successful execution of growth plans is crucial for CarMax's sustained performance.

🧵 The best posts from Wall St Bets this week

It’s been a rough start to 2024 for Boeing.

Don’t ever trade naked calls.

AI learns from human behavior example 2,390,845,098

📈 Trends you need to know

Brought to you by our friends at Glimpse, my favorite way to spot trends.

There’s a reckoning coming.

🖼️ Meme of the week

That’s it for this week. Love it? Hate it? Smash reply.

Notes

Please read this disclaimer. The authors of Alt Assets, Inc. are not attorneys, investment advisers, accountants, tax professionals or financial advisers and any of the content should not be taken as professional advice. They are self-taught accredited investors, sharing information, research, entertainment and lessons learned based solely on their own experience and circumstances. Individual results may vary. The published content is unique, based on certain assumptions and market conditions at the time of publishing, and is intended to serve solely as research, not financial advice. For entertainment purposes only. Not investment advice. Alts I LLC (the “Fund”) is an affiliate of Alt Assets, Inc. and the Fund has conducted a private placement offering under Rule 506(c) of Regulation D of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended. The Fund may invest in one, several, or all of the alternative asset classes that Alt Assets, Inc. publishes content about on its site. Any of the Fund’s investments that have positive designations on the Alt Assets, Inc. site are purely coincidental, as the Fund is actively managed and guided by its own investment parameters, as summarized in the relevant private placement memorandum. Alternative investing involves a high degree of risk, including complete loss of principal and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The newsletter may contain affiliate links, meaning that Alts.co and its associated entities may receive compensation for referring customers to the noted companies. We recommend seeking the advice of a financial professional before you make any investment in an alternative asset class or any associated entities, and we accept no liability whatsoever for any loss or damage you may incur.