Swaggy's Top Stonks - The Best Investments of 2023

1. Crypto

CZ and SBF will disagree, but it's been a fantastic twelve months for crypto investors.

BTC is up 158% on the year, while ETH lags behind at a more pedestrian 85% ROI.

They're both well off their 2021 highs, but there are a lot of forecasts coming out for 2024 that show BTC hitting $75k, $100k, and more as rates come down and the risk trade is back on.

It's not just the currencies that have done well. Marathon, a Bitcoin mining company, ​acquired​ two smaller competitors for nearly $180 million yesterday.

You think BTC has been doing well? Check out the picks and shovels.

Speaking of outperformers...let's check in on the altcoins. No, not the stupid dog one.

YTD returns for:

• Solana: 527%

• Cardano: 129%

• Avalanche: 257%

Ok, the dog one too. DOGE is up 22% YTD.

And Thanksgiving did its job. The degenerates told Granny all about how BTC is mooning.

As for CZ, SBF, and all their buddies?

2. AI

We can't talk about 2023's big winners without digging into AI a bit.

Nvidia is up 246% on the year with a market cap of $1.23 trillion. 25% of startup ​funding​ went to AI companies, and 20% of new ​unicorns​ are in AI.

Lesser known companies like ​Symbotic​, which deals in warehouse automation, are up 3x to 4x with deca-billion dollar market caps.

Even the pretend-sounding ​Sanlam Global AI Fund​ is ​up 36%​ on the year.

It's been a wild year for AI.

We all knew AI was going to be big in 2023. Even I ​predicted​ it.

But AI will be a lot like the mobile phone or the internet in the long run. Not really a thing you invest in directly very often but more of an enabling technology we all use.

Picking the companies that make the best use of the tech and do it first is where the real money will be made.

For now, enjoy an eight-bit pixilated image of me in a Christmas jumper.

3. BNPL

After a horrific 2022, Affirm has had a ​ridiculous​ 2023. The Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) leader is up 454% YTD.

• Through December, consumers ​spent​ $65 billion via BNPL.

• BNPL purchases on Black Friday increased 42.5% YoY to nearly $1 billion.

• Yesterday, Affirm and Walmart ​announced​ a partnership that will let customers use Affirm at self-checkout stations.

The BNPL segment only accounts for a little over 2% of customer spend, but it's helping prop up the ​American retail sector​, which many feared would have a nasty holiday season.

It's an attractive model for consumers, who don't usually pay any interest on deferred purchases, and the debt is kept off ​credit reports​.

In fact, nearly 25% of Gen Z won't ​consider​ a purchase if BNPL isn't offered.

And retailers get to juice revenue a bit.

It's such an amazing model that--according to ​GlobeData​--the BNPL industry is worth some $300 billion today and is set to grow 25% PER YEAR through 2026.

I violently disagree, but you'll have to wait until my Ideas for 2024 issue in two weeks to find out why.

OK here's a hint.

4. Private Equity

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Fundraising was down across private markets this year, but the publicly traded mega PE funds found a way to do more with less. Returns were universally off the charts in 2023.

This is extraordinary when significant aspects of the PE model have been under threat in 2023.

IPOs have been in cold storage. Real estate has been sinking like a stone.

In fact, PE funds have ​beaten​ out all other investment funds through the end of the year. Even big tech.

Both this and the previous piece fit nicely into my working theory that we're well into a sort of second Gilded Age (perhaps that's why I chose them). That power law will continue to assign wealth to the existing centers of gravity while those at the bottom continue to get worse off. And the percentage at the bottom gets bigger.

I hope to write something useful about this in the new year.

5. A strange mix of commodities

Some quick-fire looks at an odd bunch of commodities that have mooned in 2023:

​Uranium​: The price of uranium reached its highest level in nearly 16 years:

• Global Support for Nuclear Power: Increased adoption and support for nuclear energy as a clean and reliable energy source.

• Uranium Supply Concerns: Potential restrictions on supply due to geopolitical tensions, alongside growing investor interest in uranium.

• Impact of Climate Change Discussions: The COP28 climate conference included nuclear energy as a key solution to climate change for the first time, leading to expectations of increased demand for uranium.

• Legislative Factors: There is growing bipartisan support in the USA for banning Russian nuclear fuel imports after 2028, which could impact global supply chains.

​Cattle​: Cattle prices have soared, reaching their highest in a decade:

• Tightening Supply: A series of droughts across the United States impacted hay and forage production, crucial for cattle rearing.

• Geographical Impact: The drought affected large cattle-producing regions, forcing producers to shrink or liquidate their herds due to a lack of forage.

• Inventory Decline: The total U.S. beef cattle inventory declined, reflecting a contraction in cattle supply.

​Olives:​ Olive oil is up 400% over the last three years:

• Climate Change: Adverse weather conditions affected key olive-producing countries.

• Production Declines: Major producers like Spain, Italy, and Portugal saw a substantial decrease in olive oil production.

• Economic Factors: Supply costs more than doubled, and there were increases in interest rates on loans.

​Orange Juice​: OJ hit an ATH in October 2023:

• Supply Reduction: Decreased orange juice supply, particularly in Florida.

• Citrus Greening Disease: Spread of a disease affecting orange trees, leading to unmarketable fruit.

• Weather Events: Extreme weather, including hurricanes and freezes, negatively impacted orange harvests in Florida and Brazil.

There is, of course, a common denominator among the commodities above.

6. Honorable Mentions

And as a special treat for our All Access members, a few honorable mentions:

• NFTs are up a sneaky 25% YTD.

• Meme stocks like Carvana have ​surged​.

• ​Novo Nordisk​, the manufacturer of the pills that will save us all, is up 46%.

• Last but not least, ​Star Wars cards​ are up 26% when everything else in the space is down.