๐Ÿ’” Yesterday's CPI delivered some tough love

๐Ÿด And, stop trying to invest in buggy whips

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๐Ÿ“ฐ Market Headlines

*past 24-hour performance

  • The CPI print came in slightly hotter than expected yesterday at 3.2% versus expectations of 3.1%

    • The report was close enough to expectations that experts (and markets) still expect rate cuts in June. [Ed: I think they won't cut].

    • Core inflation exceeded expectations, with a 0.4% monthly rise and a 3.8% annual increase.

    • Inflation led to a decrease in travel costs but caused a sharp increase in prices for over-the-counter medications.

  • The S&P 500 hit a new record high yesterday, unphased by new inflation data.

  • European markets closed with the FTSE 100 reaching a 10-month high.

  • JPMorgan remains bearish, citing overpriced valuations and geopolitical risks.

  • Bitcoin ripped up to a new all-time high of $72,968. The cryptocurrency is above 73,400 at publication.

  • Biden officially clinched the Democratic presidential nomination for the 2024 election.

๐Ÿ•ถ๏ธ Market Vibes

๐ŸŽฐ Market Forecasts and Futures

Forecasts via Kalshi, the prediction market.

Yesterday Kalshi nailed the CPI print at 3.2%.

Just a bit of housekeeping: I've updated the prediction markets below to show a rate cut by June rather than March.

๐Ÿ˜ฑ Fear and Greed Index

๐Ÿง  What do you think?

I would like to understand our audience demographics better.

Which is the correct step one?

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๐ŸŽค What you said last time

When your brand image is โ€œfear for your life,โ€ you know youโ€™ve got a problem.

๐Ÿ“ˆ Trends you need to know

Cumulative sentiment analysis from DeepSearchLabs shows us that CNBC's call on Dollar General stores (see below) is probably way off base. The company is a discount retailer so people are never really in love with the brand but it looks absolutely fine to me.

๐Ÿ“Š Stocks

Want to invest like Buffet? With Public.com, you can emulate Berkshire Hathawayโ€™s portfolio with just a few clicks.

Winners and losers

Earnings, upgrades, and acquisitions

  • Allbirds shares tumbled 19.35% with sales down 14.48% from last year.ย [Ed:ย another company I didn't know still existed]

  • Archer-Daniels-Midland missed earnings but announced a plan to fix accounting issues. Up 4.9%.

  • Kohl's down 3% on a weak outlook for 2024.

  • On Running missed earnings and fell 8.9%.

  • Fortrea Holdings stock remained unchanged despite a full-year net loss.

Market movers

  • Oracle's shares floated up 12% on cloud infrastructure sales.

  • Boeing faces setback as New Zealand seizes black boxes from a LATAM Boeing 787 incident. Boeing's Max crisis has forced airlines to cut flights and pause hiring.

  • Goldman Sachs plans to expand its private credit portfolio to $300 billion within five years.ย [Ed: it's a bubble, folks ]

  • IBM started layoffs in its marketing and communications division as part of its push toward AI.

  • Apple will allow iOS app downloads directly from websites in the EU.

Ideas, trends, and analysis

  • Auto insurance skyrocketed 20.6% year over year as of February.

  • U.S. market's Shiller P/E stood at 34 as of March 1st, ranking it in the top 1% of historical valuations.

  • CNBC says Dollar General's โ€œbrand is showing some cracks and may be a warning sign ahead of earnings.โ€ [Ed:ย we disagree. See above ]

  • Bank of America boosted its S&P 500 earnings outlook for 2024 by 12%.

  • Jerome Powell pointed to soaring insurance costs as the reason for persistently high inflation.

  • Stock buyback ETFs have outperformed their peers since 1994.

  • Despite soaring valuation, Arm Holdings braces for a selloff.

  • CVC and HPS discussed a merger to form a $300 billion asset management giant.

๐ŸŒ Global Perspectives

  • ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง Over a fifth of UK adults are not looking for work.

  • ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ท Argentina's monthly inflation slowed to 13.2% in February, but annual inflation soared to 276.2%.

  • ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ The US announced a new $300 million weapons package for Ukraine.

  • ๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡น Haiti's Prime Minister Ariel Henry resigned during escalating violence and political pressure.

  • ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธย ๐Ÿ‡พ๐Ÿ‡ช The US conducted defensive airstrikes in Yemen after Houthi missile attacks.

  • ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ Europe is pushing to revive its mining sector and reduce dependence on Chinese rare earth minerals.

  • ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡พ A first aid ship left Cyprus for Gaza as Palestinians face famine.

๐Ÿ“Š Income

๐Ÿ“Š Crypto

๐Ÿง  Errata

  • San Diego "queenpin" amassed millions by reselling stolen cosmetics.

  • CEO of Nvidia credits his success to what he learned washing dishes at Denny's.

  • Chaos unfurled as a truck dumped toilet paper across the highway, clogging traffic.

  • Archaeologists discovered 4,000-year-old lipstickย [Ed: it was immediately stolen by the San Diego Queenpin]

  • Counterfeit cash is making a comeback.

  • Mars's gravitational pull is stirring giant whirlpools in Earth's deep oceans.

๐Ÿ“บ What to Watch Today

My rebuttal to this tweet can be found below.

Thatโ€™s all for today. Did I miss anything? Smash the reply button to let me know.

Cheers,

Wyatt