πŸ’” Yesterday's CPI delivered some tough love

🐴 And, stop trying to invest in buggy whips

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πŸ“° Market Headlines

*past 24-hour performance

  • The CPI print came in slightly hotter than expected yesterday at 3.2% versus expectations of 3.1%

    • The report was close enough to expectations that experts (and markets) still expect rate cuts in June. [Ed: I think they won't cut].

    • Core inflation exceeded expectations, with a 0.4% monthly rise and a 3.8% annual increase.

    • Inflation led to a decrease in travel costs but caused a sharp increase in prices for over-the-counter medications.

  • The S&P 500 hit a new record high yesterday, unphased by new inflation data.

  • European markets closed with the FTSE 100 reaching a 10-month high.

  • JPMorgan remains bearish, citing overpriced valuations and geopolitical risks.

  • Bitcoin ripped up to a new all-time high of $72,968. The cryptocurrency is above 73,400 at publication.

  • Biden officially clinched the Democratic presidential nomination for the 2024 election.

πŸ•ΆοΈ Market Vibes

🎰 Market Forecasts and Futures

Forecasts via Kalshi, the prediction market.

Yesterday Kalshi nailed the CPI print at 3.2%.

Just a bit of housekeeping: I've updated the prediction markets below to show a rate cut by June rather than March.

😱 Fear and Greed Index

🧠 What do you think?

I would like to understand our audience demographics better.

Which is the correct step one?

Login or Subscribe to participate in polls.

🎀 What you said last time

When your brand image is β€œfear for your life,” you know you’ve got a problem.

πŸ“ˆ Trends you need to know

Cumulative sentiment analysis from DeepSearchLabs shows us that CNBC's call on Dollar General stores (see below) is probably way off base. The company is a discount retailer so people are never really in love with the brand but it looks absolutely fine to me.

πŸ“Š Stocks

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Winners and losers

Earnings, upgrades, and acquisitions

  • Allbirds shares tumbled 19.35% with sales down 14.48% from last year. [Ed: another company I didn't know still existed]

  • Archer-Daniels-Midland missed earnings but announced a plan to fix accounting issues. Up 4.9%.

  • Kohl's down 3% on a weak outlook for 2024.

  • On Running missed earnings and fell 8.9%.

  • Fortrea Holdings stock remained unchanged despite a full-year net loss.

Market movers

  • Oracle's shares floated up 12% on cloud infrastructure sales.

  • Boeing faces setback as New Zealand seizes black boxes from a LATAM Boeing 787 incident. Boeing's Max crisis has forced airlines to cut flights and pause hiring.

  • Goldman Sachs plans to expand its private credit portfolio to $300 billion within five years. [Ed: it's a bubble, folks ]

  • IBM started layoffs in its marketing and communications division as part of its push toward AI.

  • Apple will allow iOS app downloads directly from websites in the EU.

Ideas, trends, and analysis

  • Auto insurance skyrocketed 20.6% year over year as of February.

  • U.S. market's Shiller P/E stood at 34 as of March 1st, ranking it in the top 1% of historical valuations.

  • CNBC says Dollar General's β€œbrand is showing some cracks and may be a warning sign ahead of earnings.” [Ed: we disagree. See above ]

  • Bank of America boosted its S&P 500 earnings outlook for 2024 by 12%.

  • Jerome Powell pointed to soaring insurance costs as the reason for persistently high inflation.

  • Stock buyback ETFs have outperformed their peers since 1994.

  • Despite soaring valuation, Arm Holdings braces for a selloff.

  • CVC and HPS discussed a merger to form a $300 billion asset management giant.

🌍 Global Perspectives

  • πŸ‡¬πŸ‡§ Over a fifth of UK adults are not looking for work.

  • πŸ‡¦πŸ‡· Argentina's monthly inflation slowed to 13.2% in February, but annual inflation soared to 276.2%.

  • πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ The US announced a new $300 million weapons package for Ukraine.

  • πŸ‡­πŸ‡Ή Haiti's Prime Minister Ariel Henry resigned during escalating violence and political pressure.

  • πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ πŸ‡ΎπŸ‡ͺ The US conducted defensive airstrikes in Yemen after Houthi missile attacks.

  • πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Ί Europe is pushing to revive its mining sector and reduce dependence on Chinese rare earth minerals.

  • πŸ‡΅πŸ‡ΈπŸ‡¨πŸ‡Ύ A first aid ship left Cyprus for Gaza as Palestinians face famine.

πŸ“Š Income

πŸ“Š Crypto

🧠 Errata

  • San Diego "queenpin" amassed millions by reselling stolen cosmetics.

  • CEO of Nvidia credits his success to what he learned washing dishes at Denny's.

  • Chaos unfurled as a truck dumped toilet paper across the highway, clogging traffic.

  • Archaeologists discovered 4,000-year-old lipstick [Ed: it was immediately stolen by the San Diego Queenpin]

  • Counterfeit cash is making a comeback.

  • Mars's gravitational pull is stirring giant whirlpools in Earth's deep oceans.

πŸ“Ί What to Watch Today

My rebuttal to this tweet can be found below.

That’s all for today. Did I miss anything? Smash the reply button to let me know.

Cheers,

Wyatt