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Good morning and welcome to Stocks and Income by Swaggy.
More of the stuff you like more often — every weekday morning at 6am EST to be precise. If this is too much, just smash the button below.
Yesterday, you got our inaugural issue of Institutional-grade options by Benedict Maynard. Make sure to subscribe if you want more like this - it’s half-price for a few more days.
In the meantime, I think traders betting on six rate cuts this year are smoking something. Check out how I’m going to play that if you agree.
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*past 24-hour performance
📰 Market Headlines
CPI came in hotter than expected yesterday, printing 3.4% compared to a forecast of 3.2%. Recall the Fed has said it’ll keep rates up until it’s confident of a 2.0% print.
Equity markets were muted to mixed, unsure how to cope with this narrative violation.
Gold spiked after the UK and US dropped bombs on Houthi rebels yesterday.
The Bitcoin ETF went live yesterday with over $4.6 billion in volume.
PPI, which measures the costs producers are paying, comes out today. Forecasts are a 0.1% gain verse last month.
Lots of big banks report earnings today, including JPM, Citi, BofA, and Wells Fargo.
🕶️ Market Vibes
🎰 Market Forecasts and Futures
Despite a hot CPI print, traders still forecast a 66% chance of a rate cut in March. Kalshi is less optimistic at 40%.
I think there’s no chance unless CPI magically falls off a cliff next month, which is unlikely.
I’m going to put $50 on the No side of the March rate cut market on Kalshi. I’ll probably also load up on 0, 1, 2, and 3 rate cuts for 2024 via Kalshi.
[If you want to do the same, remember you get $25 free if you use the links above]
Finally, I’m working with Benedict to build a derivatives strategy to short bonds. In the meantime, I’ll load up on the triple inverse 7-10-year bond ETF over at public.com.
😱 Fear and Greed Index
🧠 What do you think?
How many rate cuts will we get this year?Leave a comment saying why |
🎤 What you said last time
Whisky is the big winner, followed by vodka. I reckon tequila would have ranked dead last a few years ago.
Whisky
“Specifically: 1. Bourbon 2. Irish Whiskey 3. Other American Whiskeys 4. Scotch Whiskey”
Vodka
“Can mix it with anything!!”
Other
“Have you tried good cachaça?”
📈 Trends you need to know
Search results are from our friends at Glimpse, my favorite way to spot trends.
Alcoholism in the US is in a long-term decline as non-alcoholic spirits and beer have become drinkable. Any guesses as to why it spiked in late 2016 and late 2022?
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📊 Stocks
Want to invest like Buffet? With Public.com, you can emulate Berkshire Hathaway’s portfolio with just a few clicks.
Winners and losers
Earnings, upgrades, and acquisitions
Saudi-backed Lucid Motors, which sells luxury electric sedans, only sold 6,001 cars last year.
Market movers
Crypto stocks like Coinbase, Riot Platforms, and Marathon Digital tumbled after the Bitcoin ETF was approved. Likewise, Bitcoin proxy Microstrategy.
CVS will close dozens of its in-store pharmacies in Target locations.
There’s no proof Wegovy and Ozempic make you want to commit suicide, which raises some new questions.
Job Cuts:
Ideas, trends, and analysis
Global renewable energy capacity grew 50% in 2023.
US credit card delinquencies are higher than pre-pandemic levels.
🌍 Global Perspectives
🇨🇳 China’s exports rose more than expected in December, but they still saw an overall decline in 2023. For the year, exports were down 4.6% while imports were down 5.5%.
🇯🇵 Up nearly 5% already, Japanese stocks are beating all but one (NVDA) of the US Magnificent 7 so far in 2024.
🇪🇨 Ecuador used to be an “island of peace” but is consumed by violence today.
🇦🇷 Argentinian inflation has surged past 200%.
📊 Crypto
BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF saw $1 billion worth of trades on its first day. $4.6 billion was traded overall.
But Vanguard says nuh uh.
The cheapest and most expensive BTC ETFs if you’re looking to buy.
🧠 Errata
Boneheaded anti-immigration politicians are throttling globalization.
Why car insurance prices are up 20%.
Next week’s hurricane blizzard in the US will send power prices soaring.
📺 What to Watch Today
That’s all for today. Did we miss anything? Smash the reply button to let us know.
Cheers,
Wyatt
