🖨️ The PCE Index prints inline

🍌 And now markets have a pass to go bananas

Author

Wyatt from Alts
February 29, 2024

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📰 Market Headlines

*past 24-hour performance

  • Anticipation for the PCE inflation report had markets on edge yesterday, with expectations set for a 0.3% monthly gain and a 2.4% year-over-year increase.

  • PCE numbers came in bang in line with forecasts this morning:

    • The index printed 0.3% MoM and 2.4% YoY

    • Core numbers were up 0.4% MoM and 2.8% YoY.

    • The report sent all index futures higher.

  • Bitcoin's rally stole the spotlight, hitting $60,000 for the first time in over two years. It’s at $63,000 as we go to press.

    • Trading volume was so high that Coinbase went down for a bit.

    • An 18-month path to $150,000 is possible due to unprecedented adoption.

  • The S&P 500's valuation has reached the 95th percentile compared to historical data.

  • Congressional leaders might have struck a deal to avoid a government shutdown on Friday. Meanwhile, Republican Mitch McDonnell, the longest-serving caucus leader in Senate history, announced he’s stepping down as Senate Leader. He’ll keep his seat, though, which is good until 2027. He’s 82.

🕶️ Market Vibes

🎰 Market Forecasts and Futures

😱 Fear and Greed Index

🧠 What do you think?

Will the US government shut down Friday?

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🎤 What you said last time

Results are bullish; only a tiny percentage think we’ve peaked. The real question now is, how high can we go?

📈 Trends you need to know

From DeepSearchLabs today. Sentiment for Google Gemini cratered a couple of days ago after the high-profile imaging disaster, but it looks like people have already forgotten about it for the most part.

📊 Stocks

Want to invest like Buffet? With Public.com, you can emulate Berkshire Hathaway’s portfolio with just a few clicks.

Winners and losers

Earnings, upgrades, and acquisitions

  • Salesforce beat earnings and announced its first-ever dividend, but shares fell after hours due to weak guidance.

  • Snowflake beat Q4 earnings but forecasted weak sales; shares fell 23% on news the software company will replace its CEO.

  • Baidu posted mixed Q4 results with earnings above and revenue just below expectations, focusing on AI growth; shares dropped 8%.

  • AMC Theatres reported a significant revenue increase to $1.10 billion in Q4, driven "literally all" by Taylor Swift and Beyoncé concert movies; shares fell 9% after the call.

  • Novavax shares plummeted over 20% as the vaccine maker missed Q4 revenue estimates and projected poor sales for 2024.

  • C3.ai reported revenue that topped estimates, sending shares up more than 14% in extended trading.

  • Paramount Global revealed a mixed Q4; shares remained mostly flat post-announcement.

    • “Paramount+, the company’s flagship streaming service, saw a 69% year-over-year revenue increase and added more than 4 million net new subscribers for a total of 67.5 million. The company also said it expects Paramount+ to achieve profitability domestically by 2025.”

  • Okta soared in post-market trading, surpassing Q4 consensus estimates and issuing strong Q1 guidance; shares jumped 19.44% to a new 52-week high.

Market movers

  • Wendy's backtracked on surge-pricing their burgers. [Ed: How many McKinsey consultants lost their jobs over this one?]

  • The US SEC launched an investigation into OpenAI and the chaos around the brief firing of CEO Sam Altman.

  • Oprah Winfrey is leaving the board of WW (formerly Weight Watchers). Shares plummeted on the news.

  • Alibaba Cloud slashed prices by up to 55% across over 100 products to boost AI growth in China.

  • Electronic Arts announced layoffs of 5% of its workforce, about 670 employees, as it shifts focus towards owned IP and massive online communities.

  • Nvidia directors sell shares worth $80 million following the company's record-high stock prices. That second yacht won’t pay for itself.

  • TikTok encouraged creators to post more photo content as access to popular songs dwindled due to its spat with Universal Music Group.

Ideas, trends, and analysis

🌍 Global Perspectives

  • 🇲🇽 Volcanic ash from Popocatepetl volcano prompted the suspension of 22 flights from Mexico City.

  • 🇷🇺 🇺🇦 Russian dictator Vladimir Putin threatened nuclear war if NATO deployed troops to Ukraine.

  • 🇨🇳 In a bid to boost birth rates, Xian, China, will give lottery tickets to newlyweds. This option seems a lot more sensible tbh.

  • 🇸🇴 🇺🇸 🇹🇷 🇺🇬 Somalia signed security deals with the US, Turkey, and Uganda as tensions flair in the Horn of Africa.

  • 🇨🇳 🇹🇼 China intensified naval surveillance around Taiwan with advanced drone carriers.

📊 Income

📊 Crypto

  • South Korea's ruling party retracted its promise to ease crypto restrictions, including lifting the ban on local spot bitcoin ETFs.

  • Crypto traders hedge against potential Bitcoin price pullback, snapping up puts as the market heats up.

  • Three hidden gem cryptos set for explosive growth by 2030.

🧠 Errata

📺 What to Watch Today

What you need to know about the PCE

That’s all for today. Did I miss anything? Smash the reply button to let me know.

Cheers,

Wyatt