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Don't believe the doomers.
Markets at historically low valuations.
Swaggy’s Top Stonks. We compile and analyze data from multiple sources bringing you the top trending tickers from around the internet. If you haven’t subscribed already, please do so below.
Swaggy's Top Stonks
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Welcome newcomers to Swaggy's Top Stonks and thank you for subscribing.
If you are new to the letter I'm happy to have you here. Exciting times ahead as we'll be merging content from various creators, bringing you (one of) the most inclusive market-trends newsletter on the Internet.
Some things to look forward to in the near future are going to be:
A new "macro trends" edition of the newsletter that will be using charts and data from our upcoming premium dashboard that is currently in BETA testing.
This NEW content will likely range from interest rates & inflation, commodities prices, and other macro (unemployment rate, GDP, fed funds rate, CPI, etc), as well as charting comparisons between all the data.
Then, scope out which NFTs are seeing exponential growth and how exactly how correlated is the growth to their respective social platforms.
and much, much, more!
Let's get started in today's letter.
Today's Letter
Market Update
Meme Stocks - Will we see them again?
NFTs - Where are they at?
Trending Cryptos
Top Meme Stocks
Market Update
One of the worst weeks for the S and P since just a few weeks ago. Sarcasm aside, the market seems to be pricing in some sort of doom. Are we about to witness financial collapse? I think not.
Market capitalizations have been heavily discounted this year in one of the most painful (and only) bear markets most new traders have experienced. However, earnings ratios are beginning to look favorable to set your portfolio up for the long-run. What do I mean by this? Let's peep this chart that shows the historical P/E valuation of the S & P over the last 50 years. Source: Nasdaq.
Currently at a P/E of 19x we are down about 50% from just about 40-ish at the start of the year. History tells us the average P/E for the S & P has been roughly 16x over the last 100 years, but if we look more closely at the last 30 years then we see between 21-24 is a pretty good range. Especially as these more recent monetary policies have had a larger impact on asset prices. Time to buy the dip? Maybe.
Buying in bear markets where P/E drops to the 10-15x range has proven to be very profitable. Of course, this all depends where there is money to be made which is extremely dependent on interest rates... And what interest rates are currently telling us is that we are in a risk-off environment. It's no wonder the historical P/E chart above looks very similar to the Fed Funds Rate from the last 20 years as well.
The Fed Funds Rate is the interest rate that banks charge each other to borrow and indirectly influences long-term interest rates. Coincidence that we see bear markets and bull runs where the FFR/interest rate charts inverse market valuations? I think not.
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Meme Stocks - Will we see them again?
What's going on with meme-stocks, will we see them again? My guess is yes, but the market needs to turn a new leaf before we can pick up some momentum. People ask me all the time "Swaggy, what's the next meme stock and where have they been?"... Well a quick glance at the market shows most growth/small cap names are down 80-90% YTD. They've made a B-line to earth's core with no bounces, pretty incredible.
Even the recent Bed, Bath, & Beyond saga was extremely short-lived. The whole story lasted about two weeks with a 300% gain, followed by an even faster 70% drop to the downside. So yes, there will be some opportunities along the way in this bear market, but my guess and non-financial advice is that rallies in meme-names will be even more short-lived than they used to be while being fewer and further between. It won't be like this forever and the market will get back to it's former glory. It just needs time, or a more clear vision on when the Fed will pivot to a more dovish stance.
NFTs - Where are they now?
NFTs have been in a similar decline to equities and crypto currencies, that is, a decline to the bottom of the ocean.
Here's a visual of the average price vs floor price for the very popular Bored Ape Yacht Club NFT Collection. Seems like the floor price (the bottom-est price) has been declining, while the average price has been increasing ever so slowly. What this could mean is that the more rare NFTs (owned by celebs and the like) may be increasing in price with each exchange, while the lesser popular ones are slowly declining in price.
Seems like if you are in the "club" of owning a more popular NFT you can exchange it amongst each other to increase the price. Those who aren't in the club are simply SOL.
Trending Cryptos
Where are cryptos going? Tough to say. Bitcoin has remarkably been at the same level since... June.
At this point cryptos are probably waiting for some sort of catalyst to push them in either direction... But here's the top list of what's being mentioned on social media.
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Top Meme Stocks
Even the meme-stock fanatics are focusing on the macro these days with CPI and PPI being the most talked about term on WSB. Closely behind is the usual Tesla, followed by:
PayPal (PYPL): stock was down this week on news that the company would "fine" users for spreading false information on other social networks. The term "delete PayPal" was trending on social media due to this.
Apple (AAPL): It wasn't always the case, but AAPL has become one of WSB's favorite stocks to buy the dip on. In Tim Apple we trust.
Gamestop (GME): Gamestop is down nearly 50% in just the last two months.
Meta Platforms (META): What in the world is going on with META. The mega-cap is down nearly 40% this year alone and is getting crushed in every metric. They are seeing a decline in ad revenue thanks to Apple's new policies and rumors are surfacing that the meta-verse is becoming one big flop.
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