🔥 CPI came in hot, incinerating gains

🥊 But Bitcoin remains undefeated

Author

Wyatt from Alts
February 15, 2024

📰 Market Headlines

*past 24-hour performance

  • Hot CPI data knocked everything down a notch yesterday. January's CPI showed a 3.1% increase, above the 2.9% expected by analysts.

    • Kalshi nailed the prediction, as did we. 🎉 

  • The S&P 500 dropped 1.4% and fell below 5,000, marking its worst CPI announcement day performance since 2022.

  • The Dow Jones was down over 500 points, its largest decline since last March.

  • Bitcoin dipped below $50k briefly but is back above $51k this morning.

  • U.S. Treasury yields shot up with the 10-year note hitting its highest level since late November.

🕶️ Market Vibes

🎰 Market Forecasts and Futures

The likelihood of a rate cut in March is now microscopic, according to Kalshi, though traders are still pricing in an 8.5% chance.

So let’s push out to May, where traders are saying there’s a 36% chance now vs 33% at Kalshi.

😱 Fear and Greed Index

🧠 What do you think?

This newsletter has correctly called both the January Jobs and CPI prints and gave you the playbook to cash in via Kalshi. I hope you’ve made some money!

💵 Have you taken advantage of the free money on Kalshi?

(Remember, you get $25 free)

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🎤 What you said last time

The 2.9% to 3.1% bracket got the most votes and correctly predicted yesterday’s data. Congrats, you are all professional economic analysts now.

2.9% - 3.1%

“No rate cut”

3.2%+

“I think numbers will come in higher than expected...energy costs.”

“We tend to be very optimistic and greedy... And then what happens happens...”

📈 Trends you need to know

Search results are from our friends at Glimpse, my favorite way to spot trends.

Companies are cutting back on in-house entrepreneurship as belts get tighter.

📊 Stocks

Want to invest like Buffet? With Public.com, you can emulate Berkshire Hathaway’s portfolio with just a few clicks.

Winners and losers

Earnings, upgrades, and acquisitions

  • Waste Management bucked the market and shot up 11% after reporting record revenue of $5.2 billion.

  • Coca-Cola boosted revenue by 7% to $10.8 billion in Q4, but the stock stayed stable.

  • Shopify shares tumbled 13.4% after issuing weaker-than-expected Q1 guidance despite a 23% increase in gross merchandise volume.

  • Airbnb had a Q4 net loss of $349 million, down 2%

  • Hasbro shares dropped 1.3% after missing Q4 revenue expectations and forecasting a 7-12% decline in consumer products segment revenue for 2024.

  • An accidental extra zero in Lyft's earnings report shot shares up 44% in after-hours trading, before dropping way back down to just an 18% gain.

  • Restaurant Brands International exceeded Q4 earnings and revenue estimates. Shares were still down 4%.

  • Sony beat profit and raised guidance, sending shares up 4% after hours. PS5 sales forecasts were cut, though.

Market movers

  • The U.S. is back on top of the Fortune Global 500 with 136 of the top 500 global companies vs China's 135.

  • SpaceX got fined $3,600 after a worker nearly lost a limb. [Ed: this seems obscenely low?]

  • Paramount Global is cutting 800 jobs despite a Super Bowl-driven ad revenue spike.

  • 2024 has seen over 100,000 job cuts, a 15-year high, with Twitch, Hasbro, and Spotify leading the reductions.

  • Investor optimism hit a two-year peak, buoyed by hopes for a soft economic landing. [Ed: this may be slightly dated given the decreased Fear and Greed Index above]

  • Microsoft Copilot is getting mixed reviews, weighing on Microsoft’s AI boom.

Ideas, trends, and analysis

🌍 Global Perspectives

  • 🇲🇽🇺🇸 Mexico surpassed China as the US's top trading partner in 2023, with $798 billion in bilateral trade.

  • 🇾🇪🇮🇷 Houthi forces in Yemen attacked an Iran-bound grain ship in the Red Sea, their first such assault in six days.

  • 🇱🇧🇮🇱 Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah declared that cross-border attacks from Lebanon into Israel would stop only with a Gaza ceasefire.

  • UK inflation held steady at 4%, coming in cooler than expected. But it’s not all tea and cream - Goldman says Brexit has shaved 5% off the country’s economy.

📊 Income

  • Should you pick Nvidia or Meta for tech dividends?

  • Data shows the Dow Jones Dividend 100 Index subset consistently outperformed the broader index.

  • This REIT focuses on leases to industry-leading stable tenants like Starbucks & Target and yields a dividend of 5.2%.

📊 Crypto

🧠 Errata

  • A small plane's door just popped off over Buffalo New York.

    • Boeing execs experienced maximum schadenfreude.

  • A Rhode Island hiker won a fight to the death with a rabid coyote.

  • Self-driving cars have turned into self-delaying cars due to endless tech hurdles.

  • Booze is on a diet. Drinks are getting weaker worldwide thanks to changing tastes and tight budgets.

  • An Oregon resident caught the bubonic plague from her cat.

📺 What to Watch Today

That’s all for today. Did I miss anything? Smash the reply button to let me know.

Cheers,

Wyatt