I’m going to be in Mexico next week hosting our investor field trip, so these notes may come out slightly later in the morning than usual.

There’s still one spot left if you fancy a last-minute spot.

• Bitcoin was the big winner yesterday as it flew past $50,000 for the first time in over 2 years.

• The Dow rose slightly, and the S&P 500 settled a bit but remained over the 5,000 mark.

• Everyone is waiting on the Consumer Price Index report due later today.

  • Analysts forecast a print of 2.9% YoY, which would be the slowest year-over-year inflation since March 2021. They point mostly to slowing grocery prices and energy costs.

  • Good inflation data might accelerate the Fed’s rate cut plans.

  • Kalshi is forecasting 3.1%, which feels closer to the mark for me.

• Tesla is having a worse month than a company whose planes keep falling out of the sky.

Looks like most folks are betting on one of the 30 teams other than this weekend’s contenders.

For a hypothetical rematch in 2025, betting markets do favor the 49ers over the Chiefs.

📈 Trends you need to know

Search results are from our friends at Glimpse, my favorite way to spot trends.

I guess it’s good that we’re all learning about what the CPI is.

Ideas, trends, and analysis

• Flashy IPOs mask an unstable biopharma sector.

• Home Depot looks overvalued as it braces for its Q4 earnings on February 20.

• Two high-yield industrial REITs worth a look.

• One key metric to focus on for market-beating returns.

🌍 Global Perspectives

• 🇷🇺 72% of Russian exports now head to Asia, up from 49% in 2022.

• 🇹🇹 Trinidad and Tobago's Prime Minister declared a national emergency after a massive offshore oil spill.

• 🇧🇷 Brazil's transition to hydro and renewable energy contributed to a global gas surplus, reducing gas imports to a two-decade low.

• 🇵🇭 The death toll from the Philippines landslide climbed to 68.

📊 Income

• Alphabet and Amazon might follow in Meta's footsteps and debut dividends in 2024.

• Three REITs that just confidently hiked their dividends.

• How to understand dividend payout timelines.

• Enbridge looks strong with a 7.9% yield and a 29-year streak of dividend increases.

📊 Crypto

• Franklin Templeton just filed with the SEC for a spot Ethereum ETF.

• Grayscale argues that Bitcoin ETFs could counterbalance sell pressure from the upcoming halving.

🧠 Errata

• Over 20% of the world's migratory species are on the brink of extinction, according to a UN report.

• Bezos might save $600 million by moving from Seattle to Miami.

• Southern California shook with 13 earthquakes in 25 minutes, the biggest hitting magnitude 5.0.

• The Arlington, a ship lost in Lake Superior since 1940, has finally been found.

• Altman said ChatGPT users generate 100 billion words/day, about one one-thousandth of the total human output.

• Bill Ackman gave a bizarre — and frankly very sad — interview to New York Magazine.

That’s all for today. Did I miss anything? Smash the reply button to let me know.

Cheers,

Wyatt