📈 Another ATH for the S&P

❄️ But, earnings are coming in weak

Author

Wyatt from Alts
January 24, 2024

Tomorrow, options guru Benedict Maynard will tell you how to hedge these all-time highs. Make sure to subscribe if you want the full briefing.

Commercial real estate for everyone

Unlock the world of commercial real estate with CalTier

While numerous funds are snapping up apartment complexes, there's often a catch: you need to be an accredited investor.

But not with CalTier.

​CalTier​ is different. They let anyone invest in institutional-grade real estate.

  • Open to non-accredited investors

  • $500 minimum

  • Low fees*

  • Redemption flexibility*

They've got a portfolio of 2,197 multi-family (apartment) units across the US, like:

This is a paid promotion by CalTier.

*AN OFFERING STATEMENT REGARDING THIS OFFERING HAS BEEN FILED WITH THE SEC. THE SEC HAS QUALIFIED THAT OFFERING STATEMENT, WHICH ONLY MEANS THAT THE COMPANY MAY MAKE SALES OF THE SECURITIES DESCRIBED BY THE OFFERING STATEMENT. IT DOES NOT MEAN THAT THE SEC HAS APPROVED, PASSED UPON THE MERITS OR PASSED UPON THE ACCURACY OR COMPLETENESS OF THE INFORMATION IN THE OFFERING STATEMENT. YOU MAY OBTAIN A COPY OF THE OFFERING CIRCULAR THAT IS PART OF THAT OFFERING STATEMENT FROM: ​Offering Circular

SPONSOR

*past 24-hour performance

📰 Market Headlines

  • The S&P 500 set another record yesterday despite mixed earnings. A disappointing profit forecast from 3M helped push down the Dow.

  • Tesla, AT&T, and IBM all report earnings today. Tesla is under pressure after slipping 15% since the start of the year.

  • India's stock market is now the fourth largest in the world, overtaking Hong Kong. Its value doubled in the past four years.

  • Donald Trump defeated Nikki Haley in the NH primary.

🕶️ Market Vibes

🎰 Market Forecasts and Futures

😱 Fear and Greed Index

🧠 What do you think?

Tesla reports Q4 earnings after the bell today.

Analysts expect:

  • Revenue of $25.87 billion, up 6.4% YoY

  • Adjusted EPS of $0.73, down 36.4% YoY

Will Tesla

Back your play in the comments

Login or Subscribe to participate in polls.

🎤 What you said last time

🪂 Jumping without a parachute is awesome.

Sorry about cropping answer two. I’ll be more concise next time.

Something else

“I feel like the correction will be late in the year, August'ish. And that it will be 5-7% at most. I'm buying long for another month or two, then keeping my cash until late year, but no, I'm not doing anything else. Also buying mostly Berkshire at the moment.. that is my hedge, ha.”

“I use trailing stop-loss orders on all my equities. For blue chips it's around 10%. For stocks I'm concerned about, but don't want to miss a bull run, I set the TSL at 5%. For the ones I intend to sell, rather than an immediate sale I use a 2% TSL.”

“I'm buying 8 acres and planting fruit trees so I can resell the homegrown organic fruit.”

📈 Trends you need to know

Search results are from our friends at Glimpse, my favorite way to spot trends.

Search volume for Netflix subscriptions is up 15% YoY, with particular strength coming from Nigeria, the Philippines, and Singapore.

📊 Stocks

Want to invest like Buffet? With Public.com, you can emulate Berkshire Hathaway’s portfolio with just a few clicks.

Winners and losers

Earnings, upgrades, and acquisitions

  • Netflix smashed expectations. The streaming company added 13.1 million new subscribers, bringing it to a record-high 260.8 million members. Profits were up 19x over last year. Shares up 6.5%.

  • 3M missed revenue estimates and guided down for 2024 after a fairly tepid 2023. I expect the company to cut costs, starting with jobs, this year. Shares were down 11%.

  • Procter & Gamble beat on adjusted earnings but missed on revenue. The company came in below expectations, factoring in the Gillette write-down. Sales volume was weak globally, but the company raised prices, which gave it a boost. Shares were up 4%.

  • Macy's rejected Arkhouse and Brigade's $5.8 billion offer.

  • Verizon added 318,000 new consumer wireless retail postpaid phone customers in Q4 vs just 41,000 last year. This was the strongest result on that metric in four years. Shares rose 5%.

  • Texas Instruments threw up all over itself, missing earnings and revenue and guiding lower. Shares down 4%.

Market movers

  • Blackstone bought Tricon Residential for $3.5 billion, adding 38,000 homes in the Atlanta area.

  • Netflix is paying TKO Inc. $5 billion over ten years to bring WWE Raw onto its streaming platform. ¿ Wen Lucha Libre?

  • Jack Ma bought $50 million worth of Alibaba shares, while co-founder Jo Tsai added $151 million, sending the stock up 6%.

  • Tesla is building a mass-market EV codenamed “Redwood.” They aim to launch it in mid-2025.

  • More layoffs:

    • SAP is sacking 8,000 people, 7% of its workforce.

    • eBay is firing 1,000 employees, around 9%.

    • Paramount is probably laying off 800 people in February.

    • Abrdn, an asset manager, is axing 500 jobs.

    • Time laid off 15% of its editorial employees, roughly 30 people.

  • Blackrock upped its stake in iRobot to 17.1%, which sent the stock up 8%. The company is trading at 0.5x sales.

  • More bad news for Boeing.

Ideas, trends, and analysis

🌍 Global Perspectives

🇹🇷 🇸🇪 🇭🇺 Turkey finally approved Sweden's NATO membership bid. Hungary still hasn’t ratified the country’s application.

🇨🇳 One weird derivative that could decimate the Chinese economy.

🇮🇱 Bill Ackman is buying a 5% stake in the Israeli stock exchange.

🇹🇭 The Thai economy is in “crisis” as the government continues to slash growth estimates. Rates there are at a decade-high 2.5%.

🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia jumped 25 spots in the World Bank’s Statistical Performance Indicators report.

🇰🇵 🇰🇷 After calling it an “eyesore” a few days ago, unconfirmed reports say Korean Dictator Un has demolished the Arch of Reunification, abandoning reconciliation with South Korea.

📊 Income

📊 Crypto

  • The SEC Twitter hacker used a compromised phone number to change the account's password.

  • Bitcoin bounced off its recent plummet to peak its head back above $40,000.

🧠 Errata

📺 What to Watch Today

This has nothing to do with investing, but it looks awesome and is a great way to spend an afternoon teaching science to your kids (or yourself).

That’s all for today. Did I miss anything? Smash the reply button to let me know.

Cheers,

Wyatt