All aboard the interest rate decision.

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Swaggy's Top Stonks

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• Stay up to date on the latest market trends, combining the macro with social analytics.

• The what's hot and what's not list.

• See which stocks have gone parabolic due to retail sentiment, and which have cooled off significantly.

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Let us do the heavy-lifting in breaking down meme-stock data and subscribe today.

Today's Letter

• Macro - Fed Continues Hawkish Signals

• The Hot List

• The Cold List

Macro - Fed Continues Hawkish Signals

This week the FOMC unanimously decided to increase its target for the federal funds rate by an additional 75 basis points, marking the fourth consecutive rate increase of this size, to a range between 3.75% and 4%, which was pretty much unthinkable one year ago. As much of the "Fed pivot" talk we've been hearing, the truth is the Fed had projected the rate increase at its prior meeting, so it seems it was inevitable.

The market was looking for a dovish tone, but what we got was Powell repeatedly shifting toward a more hawkish direction and ended up causing panic in the markets. The narrative has never been more clear that the Fed is looking to break the consumer in order to bring down inflation.

• Step 1: Inflate assets and then rely on monetary policies to bring down inflation.

• Step 2: Destroy consumer spending with a "hard landing" into recession.

• Step 3: Going back to relying on monetary policies to recover from said inflation and re-stimulate economy.

• Step 4: Rinse and repeat.

These policies are like a swinging pendulum, except each swing of the pendulum happens over a decade and brings policies, markets, and equities into a state of over-reaction... Will it be different this time around? Here's a look at the historical chart of the Fed Funds Rate (gold color) vs QQQ share price (a big-tech tracking ETF -green color) over the last 20 years.

The Fed Funds rate is the lending rate between banks/institutions and has an influence on interest rates. When we compare the two data sets, it is quite noticeable to see the effect interest rates end up having on equities and other asset categories. When rates go down, the move to the upside is more aggressive, and the opposite is true when rates go up.

Environment of Higher Rates = Assets Deflate

Environment of Lower Rates = Assets Inflate

As they say, "don't fight the Fed", and this is usually what they refer to. The last several years have been a huge indicator of how investors view asset valuations. When debt is nearly free asset prices get jacked up, and assets deflate when debt becomes more expensive. During the market surge of 2020 and post 0% interest rates, people were screaming to buy stocks when price-to-earnings (P/E) were 30+, or when unprofitable companies were trading on mainly growth metrics and price-to-sales (P/S) ratios of 20x sometimes.

Now, with valuations back to nearly half of what they were one year ago, investors are screaming that companies are still too expensive at P/E of 18x or P/S of 3-4x. It's weird how perspective changes outlook. Additionally, we are over 8 months into this "rate hike" process and inflation is still running rampant... What if (BIG IF), the current macro environment and high inflation period we are in has nothing to due with interest rates directly, but more to do with the exponential increase in the Fed's balance sheet mixed with last year's supply constraints and this year's energy squeeze. Perhaps adjusting interest rates isn't the solution to this inflationary cocktail that's been brewing and the answer lies elsewhere (like reducing the Fed's balance sheet).

The Hot & Cold Lists - What are they about?

The reason I made this premium version of the newsletter was because it takes time to sift through the most trending stocks and see where they are all trading at.

When I browse the meme-stocks list to see what's trending, I'll often comes across some well-written DD and informative articles. They make compelling arguments on why the stock should have a potential move to the upside... But it's difficult to keep track of all the meme-stocks and whether they are in advancement or decline.

I wanted to avoid the "WallStreetBets" effect. The WSB effect is when a stock takes off due to social hype and other non-fundamental "squeeze" factors. In my opinion, I've found the best way to do this is to see how far above the stock is from their 52-week low OR the 50-day moving average. Too high above and I'll re-consider entering any positions.

Let's use this Swaggy meme-stock sentiment chart for Bed, Bath, & Beyond (BBBY). This was the last meme-stock that really took off in the last 3 months.

Most meme-stocks move in similar fashion with the following stages:

• Inception: The idea of a potential move in the stock is spawned weeks to months before the stock takes off. Whatever it is, there is an unusual uptick in stock mentions.

• Lift-Off: This phase usually lasts a day or two and involves a sharp move to the upside. At this point many traders gamblers are either too hesitant to place another bet since the stock just rocketed 80% in the green, OR they think momentum will evaporate back to the downside.

• Moon-Mission: The stock makes another sharp move to the upside except even more violent. Here, long-term investors gamblers get super-hyped and jump onto the stock train... the screams of "this thing only goes up" is heard in the distance.

• Earth's Core: The final step is this series is the crash landing all the way to earth's core. It doesn't always end up like this, but often does. It's what to be expected after a 300% gain in such a short amount of time.

I can't say that all meme-stocks react this way, but they do follow that similar trend more often then not. This newsletter will be strictly data-based, highlighting the following criteria for each stock:

• One of the top meme-stocks or social mentions in a recent timeframe (1 week, 1/3/6 months).

• Is trading in the top percentile of distance to/from their 52-week high or 52-week low.

• Is trading in the top percentile of distance to/from their 50-day SMA (simple moving average).

The goal is to find stocks that are a little too hot to handle, while looking at some names that have cooled off with the potential to re-load again in the future.

History often rhymes and meme-stocks will make a come-back...

The Hot List

Very few names making the hot list right now, which is somewhat a good thing. I've highlighted names that were top 50 in meme-stock mentions over the last 6 months, and that are down less than 50%. The names are only a select few and include various stable-coins equities, such as:

• Apple Inc (AAPL)

• OIL: Referring to oil in the oil and gas industry.

• Disney (DIS): Don't mess with the mouse they said. DIS is barely handing on at -44% from the 52-week high.

• Walmart (WMT): A stock that moves slow on the way up and the way down. Retail traders seem to think WMT may just be recession-proof.

• McDonalds (MCD): MCD has performed extremely well and is actually at their 1-year high.

A message from today's sponsor and partner newsletter, AlphaMemo!

The AlphaMemo is a newsletter that highlights trending topics around the stock market, such as:

• Growth stocks that have taken a beating and are setting up for a technical move.

• Compares valuations in individual names, sectors, and industries.

• Covers trending topics around the market and offers trade ideas.

The Chill List

Some of these names are interesting based on the fact that they are:

• Down roughly 60-90% this year, valuations cut in half or more.

• Have the capability to become popular again amongst the retail trading crowd and stock communities.

I try to look at both the "Year High" and "Year Low" column and see how far off the stock price is from both. Regardless of market conditions and what happens next, there will be some buying opportunities on the horizon.

Some of the more notable categories of stocks making this list are:

• Some OG meme-stocks: GME, AMC, BB, PLTR, BBBY being down close to 70-90%

• Popular chip companies: NVDA, AMD, both down 60% from the 52-week high.

• FAANG-boys: AMZN, META, NFLX down 50%, 75%, and 60%, respectively.

• Other popular retail names got banged up: SNAP (-80%), WISH (-90%), SOFI (-80%), HOOD (-66%), BABA (-60%), RBLX (-70%), NIO (-80%)

That's it for today's letter. For the low-down on what's happening with meme stocks and the markets at least twice a month, subscribe to the premium version of the newsletter.

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SwaggyMedia LLC is a publisher of market-related information for entertainment purposes only, not an investment advisor. We do not provide personalized or individualized investment advice or information that is tailored to the needs of any particular recipient.

The information contained in this website and newsletter is not and should not be construed as investment advice, and does not purport to be and does not express any opinion as to the price at which the securities of any company may trade at any time. The information provided herein should not be taken as specific advice on the merits of any investment decision.

Although the information here may be based off social sentiment, aka retail trading communities, they may be subject to manipulation by nefarious actors on their respective platforms. Many stocks are mentioned in this newsletter, and thus it's possible the publisher and/or affiliates may have a long or short position in the securities of companies mentioned herein. To the extent such persons do have such positions, there is no guarantee that such persons will maintain such positions.